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  • Sharp rise in steel prices eventually return to supply and demand is the hard truth
     
    This week (3.7-3.11) domestic steel prices jumping up and down, rises and falls, like sitting on the roller coaster general, noisy people dabeitaixi, heart disease will be to the whole matter, two days the price rose 400-500 yuan, two days later plunged 300-400 yuan, can not help but exclaim "fun." As of March 11, 2016, Lange Iron and steel composite price index reached 97.9 points, than the same period last week, up 11.4; Lange steel long products price index reached 102.4 points, than the same period last week, up 13.4 points; Lange Iron and steel sheet and plate price index reached 94.5 points, than last week increase over the same period 10 points.

    On Friday (March 4th) announced the U.S. February payrolls report strong payrolls data is higher than the market expected 195 thousand reached 242 thousand people. Non farm payrolls data strongly support the market risk sentiment further improve, commodity futures prices sharply higher across the board, Friday night disc screw steel, coil, iron ore, coal, coke futures prices all sealed limit. For this round of steel price rise provides a "fuse". At the same time, time later on Friday, Tangshan Iron and Steel Industry Association: the article, the Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau: Tangshan Park air quality protection measures will soon be issued (containing a brief measures) ". The paper shows the Tangshan Iron and steel enterprises will not be halted, about 50% of the Limited production of important activities, preliminary statistics major activity time a total of 33 days. This news release has become the catalyst of this round of rising steel prices. On Saturday and Sunday, Tangshan Steel Billets and other steel products price continuous pull up, billet daily at a rate of 120 yuan again crazy pull up, to midday Tuesday, a total of pull up the four 120 yuan, the cumulative 480 yuan rise, it may be said is extremely crazy. And on Monday and Tuesday, screw steel, coil, iron ore, coal, coke and other black products futures to seal in the trading board, the market is extremely crazy.

    Under the drive of the billet prices and futures prices skyrocketing, throughout the domestic steel mills and market construction steel prices have jumped, amplitude between 400-500 yuan, two days before the price rose in the process, the overall turnover are also very popular. Beijing's average daily shipments of steel agreement households remained at around 20 thousand tons, is two times the normal level. But the price rise in good times don't last long, crazy, the rapid spread of the mentality of the market heights. On Tuesday, Tangshan billet prices appears to fall, billet prices from the highest 2260 yuan to 2100 yuan. Second days once again fell 240 yuan, fell to the lowest 1860 yuan, followed by a rebound, rose to 2080 yuan on Friday, closing at 1960 yuan, the final price rose 180 yuan more than last Friday. This price is really the heartbeat, breathing difficulties. Volatility of billet directly affects the construction of steel around the spot price. Beijing market steel prices to the highest reported 2410 yuan, Friday to close at 2200 yuan, up 150 yuan more than the price on Friday. Rebar futures also fluctuated wildly, as of Friday, 1605 rebar contract reported 2085 yuan, than the same period last week, up 98 yuan, this week the highest 2201 yuan. Because the price limit restrictions, the futures price volatility but not big spot. In most cities offer a huge rise, the callback rate is not large, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai prices to fall rapidly, other regional prices next week will face greater pressure callback.

    Specific spot prices, Lange steel cloud platform provider monitoring data show that as of March 11, the 10 major cities of phi 25mm third grade rebar price is 2343 yuan, than the same period last week, up 286 yuan, than the same period last month rose 410 yuan. This week the market price surge in Zhengzhou 400 yuan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang, Xi'an, Wuhan, Chengdu, prices rose 300 yuan or so, Tianjin, Beijing prices rose 240 yuan and 150 yuan respectively. As of March 11, the 10 major urban diameter 6.5mm, high speed wire rod mill of HPB300 fold for 2449 yuan, than the same period last week, up 282 yuan, than the same period last month rose 403 yuan; this week, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Hangzhou prices soaring 350-380 yuan, Shanghai, Shenyang, Chengdu prices Rose 270-320 yuan, Xian, Wuhan, Tianjin prices rose 210-240 yuan, the prices in Beijing Rose 150 yuan.

    Lange steel cloud platform provider monitoring data show that as of March 11, the 29 key urban construction steel social inventory amount reached the 668.76 million tons, than last year increase 10.66 million tons, height 1.62%, than going up the month over the same period increased 59.77% and 23% lower than the same period last year. From the point of view of the city and northern cities leading Beijing inventory 33.51 million tons, than last week over the same period drop 2.94 million tons, amplitude 8.06%, than last year low 54.99%; Tianjin inventory 8.68 million tons, down 1.34 million tons amplitude 13.37% than last year low 65.31%. Leading cities in the southern part of China Shanghai inventory 32.83 million tons, than last year increase of 1.22 million tons, amplitude 3.86%, than last year low of 17.53%; Hangzhou inventory 42.46 million tons, a reduction of 3 million tons, magnitude 6.6%, than last year low 11.38%; Guangzhou inventory 107.5 tons, reduction 9.89 million tons, amplitude 8.42%, than to a low period in 25.11%; the western city of Chengdu inventory for 42.7 million tons, down 0.2 million tons, the amplitude 0.47%, than last year low 39.09%; Xi'an inventory 40 million tons, than last week increased 4.25 million tons, the amplitude of 11.89%, 5% lower than the same period last year.

    This week the domestic plate prices are crazy, rising trend even more than the steel billet, steel. Tianjin coil Friday offer less than 2200 yuan, offer Tuesday highest to 2700 yuan; Handan steel lock price policy Friday actual 1900 yuan, this week highest report 2500 yuan. Part of the city, galvanized Caitu skyrocketing prices even 1000 yuan, scary. In the market down process, some of the leading city of cold and hot rolled coil, coil coating price drop 300-400 yuan, plate prices in Puyang, Wenfeng, dedication and steel mills in Hebei lock price policy offer strong, the decline is relatively small, at around 100 yuan. Mills very price effect is very obvious, Hebei mills are undeniable.

    Hot rolled coil prices, Lange steel cloud platform provider monitoring data show that as of March 11, the average price of domestic 10 key cities 5.5mm hot-rolled coil for 2476 yuan, than the same period last week, up 245 yuan, than the same period last month rose 475 yuan. This week, Xi'an prices rose 430 yuan, Chengdu prices also rose more than 300 yuan, Beijing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenyang prices rose 210-240 yuan, Hangzhou, Guangzhou rose 160-190 yuan. Inventory, as of March 11, 29 domestic key cities of hot-rolled plates volume inventory total amount reached 227.87 million tons, than last week over the same period increased 2.46 million tons, amplitude of 1.09%, than the same period last month increased 15.09%, than last year low of 15.95%. The southern city of Shanghai led 672 thousand tons of inventory, over the same period last week increased by 1.36%; 9 thousand tons, Guangzhou inventory 505 thousand tons, increasing by 3.06% 15 thousand tons. The northern city of Tianjin led the stock market 212 thousand tons, up 30 thousand tons, 16.48% tons of 38 thousand range; Handan, drop 3 thousand tons, rate of 7.32%.

    Cold rolled coil prices. As of March 11, 10 domestic major cities 1.0mm cold rolling roll average price is 3138 yuan, rose over the same period last week the price of the 347 yuan, than the same period last month rose 443 yuan. Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Guangzhou prices rose in 450-500 yuan between, can be described as frenzied rise, Shanghai prices rose also exceeded the 400 yuan, rise 300 yuan Xian, Chengdu, Beijing, Tianjin price, Wuhan, Hangzhou, the price rose 200 yuan. Inventory, as of March 11th, 24 domestic key city of cold-rolled inventory 1 million 160 thousand and 100 tons, down 23 thousand and 600 tons over the same period last week, the rate of 1.99%, over the same period last month increased by 3.8%, 17.47% lower than the same period last year.

    Plate prices, as of March 11th, 10 domestic key city 20mm in the price of 2580 yuan, up 323 yuan more than the same period last week prices over the same period last month rose 616 yuan. This week Chengdu, Shenyang market prices over the same period last week rose 430-450 yuan, Shanghai, Xi'an rose by nearly 400 yuan, Beijing, Wuhan rose more than 300 yuan, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Handan prices rose 230-270 yuan. Inventory, as of March 11th, 29 domestic key city plate stocks reached 889 thousand and 100 tons, down 46 thousand and 600 tons over the same period last week, the rate of 4.98%, over the same period last month increased by 10.65%, 11.07% lower than the same period last year.

    Crazy week finally passed, the market is also the rest, steel, steel trading business owners also need to rest, even various sites of editors, this week quickly tired hematemesis. Just send out messages, many customers also have no time to see it, the price of new messages again, the toilet had no time to go. After this week's soaring prices, the market gradually return to rational, the daily price rises are gradually narrowed. After the madness, prices will return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. Although there has been a substantial drop this week in the latter part of the country, the varieties of steel prices, but a week still has a larger increase, short-term price adjustment is still needed, especially some prices haven't dropped and the variety of the city, high priced resources will have visitors households boycott. This week, North China area in the south region, the temperature returned to starting level, the maximum temperature in the northeast, northwest, Inner Mongolia region remained at minus, has not yet reached the operating conditions, reflect the area of steel trade, market terminal user has not begun to purchase, the steel trading business, steel sales, basically stuck between the trader cargo down, from steel mills, large trader hand, transfer to other traders in the hands. South of North China, the terminal needs to gradually recover, a large part of the resources to the end customer. With the weather warming, the level of demand of the terminal will continue to recover, for the latter part of transactions, prices will continue to support the formation of.

    From the steel production, supply point of view, the gradual recovery of steel production. According to the China Steel Association data show, 2016 February Steel Association member companies average daily crude steel output is 1.585 million tons, and level of the same period last year for 168 million tons, low close to 10 million tons, 2 months of this year, the yield level is still low. And according to Lange steel net statistics show, on March 10, 2016, the hundreds of small and medium iron and steel enterprises, 37 enterprises of blast furnace maintenance (including production and stew furnace equipment, the same below), for a total of 71 blast furnace maintenance, than last week minus 3 (including 3 BFS NEW maintenance teams, six blast furnaces to resume production) and the volume of blast furnace maintenance for 50566 m3, less than last week 18.3 cubic meters, according to the volume calculation of hundreds of small and medium iron and steel enterprises blast furnace operating rate of 84.28%, blast furnace operating rate than last week rose 0.57 percentage points. This week, hundreds of small and medium sized steel enterprises blast furnace maintenance volume ratio of the peak is down nearly 10, 000 cubic meters, the daily pig iron production capacity of 6-7 million tons, compared with a certain increase during the spring festival. The pressure on the supply of steel resources is gradually increasing.

    Next week the domestic demand will continue to grow significantly, while the growth of steel supply will remain relatively mild state. Next week, domestic steel prices with maximum possible trend is week and keep the initial callback trend and is adjusted to a certain level, with the growth to pre procurement resources gradually digestion and prices to a reasonable level caused by the desire to purchase will lead to price in the next week later rose again, this week, steel prices are up and down, and next week the price maximum possible is bottom rebound, the price next Friday and Friday's price may be fairly basic.